重庆市房地产业与国民经济相关性的研究
(1.重庆市国土资源和房屋勘测规划院房地产研究中心,重庆 400020;2.重庆大学建设管理与房地产学院,重庆 400044)
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摘要:通过房地产业发展阶段、房地产业对国民经济的贡献率与拉动率、投资水平与经济增长协调性、房价收入比及投入产出比五个指标来判断重庆市房地产业与经济的相关性。结果表明重庆市房地产业正处于初级发展阶段,并已成为重庆市的支柱产业之一;从投资水平来看,重庆市资金使用效率较高,但波动性较大;房价水平与居民收入的协调性较差。关键词:房地产业;国民经济;相关性;投资水平;经济增长Abstract:The paper judges the relationship between real estate and national economy in Chongqing from five indicators,which are development stage of the real estate industry,the contribution rate and pull rate of the real estate industry,the coordination between investment level and economic growth,price earnings ratio and input-output ratio. The results show that Chongqing real estate industry is in the primary development stage,and has become one of pillar industry in Chongqing. From the level of investment,the efficiency of the use of funds is higher in Chongqing,but the relationship is not stable;the coordination between house prices and income is poor.Keywords:real estate industry;national economy;relationship;investment level;economic growth参考文献[1] Stephen,E. Roulac. The strategic real estate framework process linkages decisions[J].The Journal of Real Estate Research,1996(3):323-346.[2] Case,Karl E. Real estate and the Macro-economy[J].Brookings Papers on Economic Aetivity,2000(2):119-145.[3] Robert H. Edelsteina,Sau Kim Lum. House prices,wealth effects,and the Singapore macroeconomy[J]. Journal of Housing Economics,2004(13):342-367.[4] 王骐骥.论房地产拉动经济增长的原由、问题及启动的近期方略[J].经济评论,2000(5):56-58.[5] 周稳海,许东制,陈立文.房地产投资促进经济增长的区域比较研究[J].建筑经济,2014(7):72-77.[6] 黄忠华,吴次芳,杜雪君.房地产投资与经济增长——全国及区域层面的面板数据分析[J].财贸经济,2008(8):56-60.[7] 沈悦,刘洪玉.住宅价格与经济基本面:1995~2002年中国14城市的实证研究[J].经济研究,2004(6):78-86.[8] 李玉杰.中国房地产业与国民经济关联关系及协调发展研究[D].大连:东北财经大学,2011.工程经济,2016(11):47-51