摘要：通过建立房地产销售额与经济增长的逻辑分析框架，探讨我国不同地区房地产销售对经济增长的作用机理，并利用2000～2012年中国35个大中城市面板数据相继进行平稳性、协整性和格兰杰因果检验，最终建立固定效应回归模型。研究发现：①东部地区和中部地区房地产销售对该地区的经济增长具有单向因果关系，西部地区房地产销售与经济增长关系不显著；②东部地区和中部地区房地产销售额的弹性系数分别为0.60和0.54，而西部地区房地产销售额的弹性系数为0.24。因此，在各地区的房地产销售对经济增长影响大小存在明显差异的情况下，各地区制定经济发展规划时，应该考虑该地区房地产业的影响机制，并进行相应调控。

关键词：不同地区；房地产销售；经济增长；面板数据模型

Abstract：By establishing a logical analysis framework of real estate sales and economic growth，this paper explores the mechanism of real estate sales on economic growth in different regions，conducts the stability，co-integration and Granger causality test by using the panel data of 35 large and medium cities in China from 2000 to 2012，and finally sets up a fixed effect regression model. This study show that：①the relationship between real estate sales and the economic growth is a one-way causal in the eastern and the middle regions，but the relationship between real estate sales and economic growth is not significant in western region；②the elastic coefficients of real estate sales in the eastern and middle regions are 0.60 and 0.54，while the elastic coefficient is 0.24 in the western region. Therefore，under the circumstance that the impact of real estate sales on economic growth differs from regions，should take into account the impact mechanism of the real estate industry and carry out the corresponding control when making regional economic development plan.

Keywords：different regions；real estate sales；economic growth；panel data model

参考文献

[1] Coulson N.E，Kim M.S. Residential investment，non-residential investment and GDP[J]. Real Estate Economics，2000，28（2）：233-247.

[2] Chang T.，Nieh C.C. A note on testing the causal link between construction activity and economic growth in Taiwan [J]. Journal of Asian Economics，2004，15（3）：591-598.

[3] Miles W，Wang K. Housing investment and the U.S economy：How have the relationships changed? [J]. Journal of Real Estate Research，2009，31（3）：329-350.

[4] 沈悦，刘洪玉.中国房地产开发投资与GDP的互动关系[J].清华大学学报，2004（9）：1205-1208.

[5] 陈守东，马辉，才元.中国房地产业投资与经济增长的实证研究[J].未来与发展，2006（5）：15-19.

[6] 岳朝龙，孙翠平. 我国房地产投资与GDP关系的协整分析[J]. 统计教育，2006（8）：24-26.

工程经济，2016（10）：66-71