新能源项目投资风险评估研究—基于突变级数法
(1.上海电力学院,上海 200090;2.同济大学浙江学院,浙江 嘉兴 314051)
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摘要:新能源项目受投资、建设周期等因素影响,投资风险较大。基于突变级数法,识别新能源项目投资风险的影响因素,构建其投资风险评价指标体系和突变模型,并以建成的分布于我国不同地区的7个风力发电项目为案例,验证突变级数法的适用性,以期为新能源项目投资决策提供参考。关键词:突变级数法;新能源项目;投资风险;评价指标Abstract:As the investment is large and the construction time is long and involving many affecting factors,the risk of investment in new energy projects is great. Based on catastrophe progression method,the paper identifies the factors influencing the investment risk of new energy projects,builds investment risk evaluation index system and catastrophe model,and takes seven built wind power projects that distribute in different regions as an example,verifies the applicability of catastrophe progression method,provides reference for investment decision of new energy project.Keywords:catastrophe progression method;new energy project;investment risk;evaluation index参考文献[1] Mohsen M.S,Akash B.A. Evaluation of domestic solar water heating system in Jordan using analytic hierarchy process[J].Energy Conversation and management,1997(18):18l5- l822.[2] 西村升.发展中国家独立发电项目幵发的风险分析[J].国际电力,2003(2):6-8.[3] Chatzimouratidis A.I,Pilavachi P.A. Technological,economic and sustainability evaluation of power plants using the Analytic Hierarchy Process[J].Energy Policy,2009(37):778-787.[4] 郭玲丽.境外电力工程项目投资风险分析及其防范措施研究[D].北京:华北电力大学,2009.[5] 任晓丽.基于因子分析法的新能源行业上市公司经营绩效评价[J].生产力研究,2009(22):92-94.[6] 雷勒·托姆著.突变论:思想及应用[M].周仲良译,上海:上海译文出版社,1989.[7] Zeetnan E C.Catastrophe theory:Selected papers(1972-1977).[8] 朱顺泉.基于突变级数法的上市公司绩效综合评价研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2002(2):90-94.[9] 都兴富.突变理论在经济领域的应用(下)[M].成都:电子科技大学出版社,1994.[10] 胥卫平,王秀英.基于突变级数法的油田管输建设工程项目环境风险评价[J].系统科学学报,2012(2):89-93.[11] Qi Sun,et al. Integrated risk management for renewable energy investment over life cycle[J]. Energy Conversion Congress and Exposition(ECCE),2012.[12] 肖瀚.我国四类风能资源区的划分情况[EB/OL].(2015-1-19)http://news.bjx.com.cn/html/20150119/582816.shtml.[13] 刘珂.可再生能源发电投资风险分析与评估模型[D].北京:华北电力大学,2013.建筑经济,2016(05):107-111