中国住宅投资波动的长期趋势与区域差异
(1.中国社会科学院财政与贸易经济研究所, 北京 100872;2.中国人民大学土地管理系, 北京 100836)
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[摘 要] 构建了我国1950~2006年住宅投资的时间序列,以OECD国家为参照,分析住宅投资波动的时空差异,发现:计划经济时期住宅投资的波动剧烈,1980~1997年房改时期波动减小,1998年停止实物分房后波动降到最低,表明市场化取向的住房制度改革有助于减小住宅投资的波动。以上海、深圳、长沙、成都为例的分析发现,我国住宅投资的波动呈现出东部较大、中部居中、西部最小的地域特征。[关键词] 住宅投资,波动,长期趋势,区域差异Abstract: By constructing a time series dataset of Chinese residential investment from 1950 to 2006, and comparing with OECD countries, this paper analyses tempo-spatial diversity of Chinese residential investment fluctuations, and finds that the market-oriented housing reform helps to reduce residential investment fluctuations. Meanwhile, there is a significant spatial diversity, behaving a decreasing mode from the eastern coastal areas to western inlands.Key words: residential investment; fluctuations; long run trend; tempo-spatial diversity[参考文献][1]Arku, G., Harris, R. Housing as a tool of economic development since 1929[J]. International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, 2005, 29(4): 895-915.[2]Mills, E. Has the United States overinvested in housing? [J]. AREUEA Journal, 1987(15): 601-616.[3]Taylor, L. Does the United States still overinvest in housing?[J]. Economic Review FRBD, 1998(2):10-18.[4]包宗华.住房投资热过“警戒线”了吗?[J].瞭望新闻周刊,2001(33).[5]张金鹗.台湾住宅投资长期与短期之预测分析[J].台湾银行季刊,1990,40(1).[6]Miron, J. Building cycle[A]. in Vliet. The encyclopedia of housing[M]. Thousand Oaks, Calif. Sage Publication, 1998: 36-37.[7]Nesslein, T. Housing investment[A]. in Vliet. The encyclopedia of housing[M]. Thousand Oaks,Calif.Sage Publication,1998: 283-284.[8]Ball, M., Morrison, T. Housing investment fluctuations[J]. Housing, Theory and Society, 2000(17): 3-13.[9]杨慎.房地产与国民经济[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2002:257.[10]Burns, L., Grebler L. Resource allocation to housing investment[J]. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 1976, 25(1): 95-121.[11]Renaud, B. Resource allocation to housing investment[J]. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 1980, 28(2): 189-199.[12]World Bank. Housing: enabling the markets to work[M]. World Bank, Washington D.C.,1993:100-104.[13]Malpezzi, S. Tales from the Real Side[R]. Working Paper, University of Wisconsin, 2000.[14]Ball, M. Morrison, T., Wood, A. Structures investment and economic growth[J]. Urban Studies, 1996, 33(9): 1687-1706.[15]Ball, M. Markets and the structure of the housebuilding industry[J]. Urban Studies, 2003, 40(5-6): 897-916.[16]Ball, Michael, Wood, A. Housing investment[J]. Housing Studies, 1999, 14(2): 185-209.[17]Wilcox, S. UK Housing review 2005/2006[M].London: CIH/CML,2005.建筑经济,2008(10):84-88