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中国住宅投资波动的长期趋势与区域差异
张清勇
(1.中国社会科学院财政与贸易经济研究所, 北京 100872;2.中国人民大学土地管理系, 北京 100836)
文献要素
[摘 要] 构建了我国1950~2006年住宅投资的时间序列,以OECD国家为参照,分析住宅投资波动的时空差异,发现:计划经济时期住宅投资的波动剧烈,1980~1997年房改时期波动减小,1998年停止实物分房后波动降到最低,表明市场化取向的住房制度改革有助于减小住宅投资的波动。以上海、深圳、长沙、成都为例的分析发现,我国住宅投资的波动呈现出东部较大、中部居中、西部最小的地域特征。
[关键词] 住宅投资,波动,长期趋势,区域差异
Abstract: By constructing a time series dataset of Chinese residential investment from 1950 to 2006, and comparing with OECD countries, this paper analyses tempo-spatial diversity of Chinese residential investment fluctuations, and finds that the market-oriented housing reform helps to reduce residential investment fluctuations. Meanwhile, there is a significant spatial diversity, behaving a decreasing mode from the eastern coastal areas to western inlands.
Key words: residential investment; fluctuations; long run trend; tempo-spatial diversity
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建筑经济,2008(10):84-88
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