我国财政收入与房地产业发展关系的因果研究
(武汉科技大学管理学院,湖北 武汉 430081)
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摘要:对我国财政收入与房地产业发展的现状进行整体性描述,进而对1987年至2013年间的我国财政收入与房地产开发投资额进行Granger因果检验。结果表明:在短期内,房地产业发展是财政收入的Granger原因;在中长期,财政收入是房地产业发展的Granger因。最后,提出通过优化产业结构、转变政府职能以及绩效考核标准、改革现存的税收体系、促进土地资源市场化配置等建议,促进我国房地产业和财政收入实现良性循环。关键词:财政收入;房地产业;Granger因果检验;产业结构Abstract:In this paper,describes the status quo of fiscal revenue and real estate industry development in our country integrally,further more,checks Chinese fiscal revenue and real estate development investment data between 1987 and 2013 by Granger causality test. The results show that:in the short term,the real estate industry development is the Granger cause of fiscal revenue,in the medium and long term,fiscal revenue is the Granger cause of the real estate industry development. Finally,this paper puts forward some suggestions such as optimizing the industrial structure,transforming the government function and performance evaluation standard,reforming the existing tax system and promoting the marketization of land resource allocation to realize a virtuous cycle between real estate industry and financial income.Keywords:fiscal revenue;real estate;Granger causality test;industrial structure参考文献[1] 国家统计局.中国统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2014.[2] Gujarati,D.N.计量经济学[M].第三版,林少宫译,北京:中国人民大学出版社,2000.[3] Granger,C.W.J,Newbold. P. Spurious regressions in econometrics[J]. Journal of Econometrics,1974(2):111-120.[4] 熊华平,陈凤丽,田勇.我国房地产业发展与城镇居民人均可支配收入的关系研究[J].建筑经济,2013(12):92~95.[5] 熊华平.中国城市房地产发展轨迹与增量影响因子研究[D].西安:西安建筑科技大学,2006.[6] 黄少安,陈斌开,等.“租税替代”、财政收入与政府的房地产政策[J].经济研究,2012(8):156-171.[7] 中国人民银行周口市中心支行.房地产业相关税收对地方国库收入影响实证分析—以周口市为例[J].金融理论与实践,2014(10):51-54.[8] 程明,李明亮,等.房地产业发展与财政收入的动态关联性研究[J].建筑经济,2013(12):19-23.建筑经济,2015(07):68-72