摘要：基于有效市场假说（EMH），以2006～2013年厦门市商品住宅月均价为样本，对商品住宅市场的有效程度进行多角度测算。结果显示，价格序列存在单位根和严重的自相关，且游程检验的Z统计值不大于99%显著水平下的临界值，表明厦门市商品住宅价格对市场信息反映程度较低，市场尚未达到弱式有效。

关键词：有效市场假说；商品住宅市场；ADF检验；游程检验

Abstract：Taking commercial housing market in Xiamen as the research object，the paper selects 2006～2013 monthly average price of Xiamen commercial housing as samples，calculates the effectiveness of Xiamen commercial housing market from multi-angle. The results show that price series have unit root and serious self-correlation，runs test Z-statistic are not greater than the critical value in 99% significant level. These indicate that commercial housing price in Xiamen has low reflection degree to market information and the market has not reach weak-form market efficiency.

Keywords：Market Efficiency Hypothesis（EMH）；commercial housing market；ADF test；runs test

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建筑经济，2015（05）：74-77