建设项目成本估算BAF模型的构建及应用
(天津科技大学经济与管理学院,天津 300000)
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摘要:结合体现项目进度的β曲线,以建设项目实施进程中的成本数据和工程造价经验数据为依托,从内部估算和外部估算两个角度入手,构建了一个建设项目成本估算BAF模型,对项目执行过程中的估算成本进行动态预测,以提高项目成本预测的精度。关键词:建设项目;BAF模型;成本估算;成本超支Abstract:Combining with the β line which can reflect the project schedule,the paper builds a BAF model on construction project cost estimate based on the cost data in project implement and empirical cost data,dynamically predicts the estimate cost in project implement progress from internal estimates and external estimates,to improve the cost prediction accuracy.Keywords:construction project;BAF model;cost estimate;cost overrun参考文献[1] Flyvbjerg,B. From Nobel prize to project management:Getting risks right[J]. Project Management,2006,37(3):5-15.[2] Molenaar,K. R. Programmatic cost risk analysis for highway megaprojects[J].Construction Engineering Management,2005,131(3):343-353.[3] 王栋栋,董晓英.基于过程管理的建筑项目成本控制研究[J].建筑经济,2013,374(12):52-54.[4] Hoeting,J. A.,Madigan,D.,Raftery,A. E.,and Volinsky,C. T. Bayesian model averaging:A tutorial[J]. Statistical Science,1999,14(4),382-401.建筑经济,2015(03):74-76