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房地产市场“非理性”决策的行为分析
李黔川
(重庆大学建设管理与房地产学院, 重庆 400030)
文献要素
[摘 要] 房地产市场“非理性”决策影响着真实决策过程。采用调查问卷、心理试验、实证检验、归纳演绎等技术手段和方法对房地产市场中的决策行为进行研究,发现和验证了决策者在房地产市场决策过程中存在的有别于传统理性选择的各种认知偏差,包括对先验概率不敏感、对特征描述过于敏感、心理账户问题、共同判断和分别判断,从而有助于提高决策的准确性,促进房地产市场的健康发展。
[关键词] 房地产,“非理性”决策,风险,偏向
Abstract: There are many irrational investment decisions in real estate market. Using some technical means and methods such as questionnaire, psychological experiment, empirical test and induction-deduction etc, the paper researches on the decisions behavior in real estate market. The results indicates and verifies that there are various kinds of cognitive biases different from traditional rational choice, including insensitive to prior probability, too sensitive to feature description, mental account, joint and separate judgment. It is helpful to improve the accuracy of decisions, promotes the healthy development of real estate market.
Key words: real estate; irrational investment; risk; bias
[参考文献]
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建筑经济,2008(5):49-52
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