摘要：采用频度统计法与德尔菲法相结合的方法，从定性与定量的角度确定城市商业广场的价值评价指标，并采用层次分析法，确定经济指标权重。通过调研长三角地区十个市级商业广场，计算出市级商业广场经济价值，分析市级商业广场面积与其经济价值的相关性，并运用最小二乘法原理，对市级商业广场的面积与经济价值的关系进行拟合，得出市级商业广场面积与价值的关系模型，计算出广场的最优规模。

关键词：商业广场；经济价值；最优面积；频度统计法；德尔菲法

Abstract：Combining the frequency statistical methods and the Delphi method，the paper determines the index system of urban commercial plaza value evaluation from qualitative and quantitative point of view，and calculates indicators based on Analytic Hierarchy Process. Furthermore，through the survey of ten city level urban commercial plazas of the Yangtze River Delta cities，confirms the relevance bet of urban commercial plaza area and its economic value，and proposes the evaluation and calculation methods of the urban commercial plaza economic value. Finally，applying the least plaza fitting method，establishes the area and economic value model to determine the optimal area of the city level urban commercial plaza.

Keywords：commercial plaza；economic value；the optimal area；frequency statistical method；the Delphi method

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