[摘　要]　界定了节能省地型住宅发展系统的概念和运行框架构造，运用系统动力学理论，明确其总体框架和因果反馈回路，构建了系统动力学模拟模型；借助计算机工具以重庆市为例进行模拟实证分析，得出决策者们关心的趋势性结论；提出具有参考价值的政策建议，为决策制订提供支持和帮助。

[关键词]　系统动力学,节能省地型住宅发展系统,模拟与预测

Abstract: Base on the conception and function framework of energy & land-saving residence development system， by using system dynamics theory， the system frame， feedback causality and SD model for energy & land-saving housing development were established. Energy & land-saving housing development trend in Chongqing was analyzed and simulated with the model and computer which concerned by decision-makers. Some suggestions with referenced value were given by analyzing the model.

Key words: system dynamics; energy & land-saving housing development system; simulation and forecasting

[参考文献]

[1]王其藩.高级系统动力学[M].北京：清华大学出版社，1995.

[2]胡雨村,沈岐平.香港住宅产业发展的系统动力学研究[J].系统工程理论与实践，2001（7）：32-37.

[3]金晓斌,殷少美,尹小宁，等.城市住宅产业发展系统动力学研究——以南京市为例[J].南京大学学报(自然科学版)，2004（6）.

[4]Jatinder Kumar. Integrated system for the development permit approval process in the housing industry[D]. Edmonton: University of Alberta，2004.

[5]Rym Baouendi. Development of a prototype tool for the evaluation of the sustainability of Canadian houses[D]. Montreal: Concordia University，2003.

[6]Brian Dyson, Ni-Bin Chang. Forecasting municipal solid waste generation in a fast-growing urban region with system dynamics modeling[J]. Waste Management， 2005, 25: 669-679.

[7]Tian Shi, Roderic Gill. Developing effective policies for the sustainable development of ecological agriculture in China: the case study of Jinshan County with a systems dynamics model[J].Ecological Economics, 2005， 53:223-246.

建筑经济，2008（4）：64-67