基于模糊DEA的房地产项目组合选择
(重庆交通大学管理学院, 重庆 400074)
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[摘 要] 房地产企业在市场拓展过程中经常面临项目组合选择问题,这些项目本身存在不确定性同时又相互影响。通过分析项目间的三种相互影响关系,引进模糊数基本理论处理不确定性,集成模糊数和数据包络分析法,构建了基于模糊DEA(F-DEA)方法的房地产项目组合选择评价模型。最后,通过算例对项目组合选择评价F-DEA模型进行求解,说明该模型能帮助决策者做出较优的项目组合选择。[关键词] 房地产;项目组合;相互影响;F-DEAAbstract: In the process of market expansion, real estate enterprises often faced with some problem of project portfolio selection. These projects are inherently uncertain and mutual influence. By analyzing three influence between projects and introducing the basic theory of fuzzy to deal with uncertainty, we integrate fuzzy and DEA, built fuzzy DEA method(F-DEA) real estate portfolio selection evaluation model. Finally, an example solved by F-DEA model shows that the model can help decision makers choose a optimal portfolio.Key words: real estate; project portfolio; mutual influence; F-DEA参考文献:[1]中国投资咨询网.2010-2015年中国建筑业投资分析及前景预测报告[EB/OL].[2010-10].http://www.ocn.com.cn/reports/2006180jianzhu.htm.[2]Dos Santos BL,Christine Xiaoyi Dai,William G.Wells. An exploration of Project performance[J]. International Journal of Project Management,2004(22):523-532.[3]Lucas HC,Moore JR.A Multiple-criterion Scoring Appro-ach to Information System Project Selection[M]. New York: New York University,1976.[4]Buss.MDJ. How to Rank Computer Projects[J]. Har-vard Business Review,1983(61).[5]安会刚,郭鹏,马贤娣.考虑相互影响的R&D项目组合选择模型研究[J].科学与科学技术管理,2007(3).[6]李默,王组和,杨彬.基于AFAD方法的工程项目组合选择评价模型研究[J].技术经济,2011(4).[7]杜先进,孙树栋,王军强,郝京辉.不确定条件下考虑相互影响的研发项目组合选择优化[J].计算机集成制造,2007(9).[8]Amir Hossein Ghapanchi,Madjid Tavana,Mohammad Hossein Khakbaz,Graham Low. A methodology for selecting portfolios of projects with interactions and under uncernt-ainty[J]. International of Project Management,2012(30):791-803.[9]杜栋,庞庆华,吴炎.现代综合评价方法与案例精选[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2005.建筑经济,2014(5):56-59