[摘　要]　目前尚未有一种能够有效判定房地产市场价格走势合理性的指标体系，也没有判定房地产投机度大小的标准。为科学地度量各地房地产市场行情，从投机动力角度出发，研究了房地产买卖收益率高低对市场行情的影响，从评价市场支撑能力角度出发，研究了居民住房支付能力问题。利用房地产买卖收益率和城市居民住房平均支付能力指标建立了房地产投机度诊断标准，并对该诊断标准进行了实证检验。

[关键词]　房地产买卖收益率,居民住房平均支付能力,诊断标准

Abstract: Nowadays， there is not an indicator system that can determine the rationality of the price trend of real estate market effectively. Also， there is no standard to determine the speculative degree of real estate. In order to measure the real estate market around the country scientifically， the paper studies the impact of real estate price-earnings ratio on the market from the perspective of speculative motivity and analyses the issues of resident's payable power from the perspective of estimating market support capacity. Moreover， this paper establishes a diagnostic standard of the speculation degree of real estate and takes empirical test of the standard.

Key words: real estate price-earnings ratio; resident's average payable power; diagnostic standard

[参考文献]

[1]世界银行.中国:城镇住房改革的问题与方案[M].北京：中国财政经济出版社，1992：1251.

[2]向肃一，龙奋杰.中国城市居民住房支付能力研究[J].城市发展研究，2007（2）：29-33.

[3]John M. Quigley，Steven Raphael. Is housing unaffordable? why isn't it more affordable?[J].Journal of Economic Perspectives， 2004（1）：191-214.

建筑经济，2008（1）77-80