我国地方政府水利投资的实证检验—基于“倒U型”曲线的分析
(1.东北财经大学投资工程管理学院, 辽宁 大连 116025; 2.东北财经大学研究生院, 辽宁 大连 116025)
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[摘 要] 通过验证我国地方政府水利投资与经济发展之间存在“倒U型”关系,确定地方政府水利投资的最优规模,以检验水利发展是否因投资不足而滞后及现有投资规模与最优规模之间的差距。实证结果显示,我国地方政府水利投资规模小于最优规模,西部地区尤为明显。地方政府应进一步加大对水利设施的投资力度,以满足经济社会发展的需要。[关键词] 地方政府;水利投资;投资不足;“倒U型”曲线Abstract: The paper verified that a “inverted U-shaped” relationship exists between water conservancy investment of the local government and economic development, from which the optimal scale can be determined, aim to test whether the lag of water conservancy development owes to the insufficient investment, and how wide the gap is between the existing and the optimal. The empirical results show that the investment scale in china is less than the optimal, especially in the western region. Therefore the local government should intensify investment in water conservancy facilities, to meet the needs of economic and social development.Key words: the local government; water conservancy investment; insufficient investment; inverted U-shaped[参考文献][1]2030 Water Resources Group,2009,Charting our Water Future:Economic Frameworks to Inform Decision Making,McKinsey & Company:Washington,D.C.,USA.[2]Cuihong Yang, Xikang Chen, Jian Xu. 2008,“A method to optimize gross fixed capital investment for water conservancy in China”,Economic Systems Research,Vol.20,June,P151-172.[3]乔根平,王瑜,张康波.宏观经济政策下的水利投融资策略分析[J].中国水利,2008(12).[4]杨友才,赖敏晖.我国最优政府财政支出规模——基于门槛回归的分析[J].经济科学,2009(2).[5]朱庆元,张劲松,刘芹等.公益性水利项目投入机制研究[J].水利经济,2006(5).建筑经济,2013(12):104-108