[摘　要]　运用Granger因果检验对1985-2011年我国房屋年竣工面积与城镇居民人均可支配收入两个序列数据进行建模分析，结果表明：我国城镇居民人均可支配收入的提高是房地产业发展的Granger原因，这种作用很明显；而房地产业的发展对城镇居民人均可支配收入提高的作用并不明显。

[关键词]　房地产；可支配收入；Granger因果检验

Abstract: Analysis the time series data of per-capita annual income of urban households and completed building area per year in China from 1985 to 2011 by Granger Causality test. The results indicated that the increase of per-capita annual income of urban households is the Granger Causality of the development of real estate, the influence is obvious .But the promoting of the development of real estate to per-capita annual income of urban households is inconspicuous.

Key words: real estate; disposable personal income; Granger Causality test

[参考文献]

[1]中华人民共和国国家统计局.《中国统计年鉴》[M].北京：中国统计出版社出版，2012.

[2]孟彩云，王聪:房价收入比与我国家庭购房能力判断[J].宏观视野，2011（8）：38-39.

建筑经济，2013（12）：92-95