基于Hodrick-Prescott滤波的中国房地产周期实证研究
(江苏科技大学土木工程与建筑学院, 江苏 镇江 212003)
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[摘 要] 选取人均可支配收入、商品房新开工面积、商品房销售面积等6个指标建立房地产周期合成指数,基于Hodrick-Prescott滤波方法对中国房地产周期进行研究。研究表明:(1)1990-2011年期间中国房地产共经历4个阶段,每个阶段持续时间大约为3至7年,房地产市场调整频繁;(2)房地产周期与经济周期存在较强的相关性,但两者波动并不同步;(3)投资、收入和价格是影响房地产周期的重要因素;(4)1998年住房政策改革对房地产周期有显著影响。[关键词] 房地产周期;Hodrick-Prescott滤波;合成指数;外部冲击Abstract: Selected per capitadisposable income, floor space of commercial houses started, floor spaceofcommercialhouses sold, etc. 6 indexes to establish a composite index of realestate cycle, andbased on the Hodrick-Prescott method to study China’s real estate cycle. The research results show that:(1)China’s realestate demonstrate obviously periodical fluctuations with 4 stages during1990-2011, and the duration of every stage is approximately 3 to 7 years, so theadjustment of real estate market is very frequent.(2)Although not synchronousthere is a strong correlation between real estate fluctuation and economiccycle.(3)Investment, income, and prices are important factors affecting realestate cycle.(4)The housing policy reform of 1998 has significant effect onreal estate cycle.Key words: real estate cycle; Hodrick-Prescott Filter; composite index; external impacts[参考文献][1]中国社会科学院财贸经济研究所.中国房地产周期波动:解释转移与相机政策[J].财贸经济,2002(7).[2]Bertrand Reynaud. The 1985 to 1994 Global Real Estate Cycle: An overview[J]. Journal of Real Estate Literature,1997(5):13-44.[3]Hodrick, Robert.J and Prescott, Edward.C. Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation[J]. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,1997,29(1):1-16.[4]Witold Witkiewicz. The Use of the HP-Filter in Constructing Real Estate Indicators[J]. Journal of Real Estate Review,2002(23):65-87.[5]刘学成.国外房地产周期研究综述[J].中国房地产,2001(5):17-19.[6]焦继文,陈文天.基于HP滤波法的我国房地产周期与房地产政策关联性研究[J].建筑经济,2012(8):79-83.[7]朱骏,张红.基于时间序列与人工神经网络的房地产周期研究[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),2006,46(6):781-784.[8]王东,陈诗骏.基于优化扩散系数法对房地产周期波动的研究-以深圳市例[J].经济评论,2007(5):76-80.[9]叶华章,任宏,申龙江.宏观调控政策下的我国房地产行业周期探索[J].建筑经济,2010(6):9-12.[10]竹隰生,章琛.不同区域房地产周期的比较研究——基于中国四个直辖市1990~2009年的时间序列[J].建筑经济,2011(11):49-54.[11]高铁梅.计量经济分析方法与建模[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2006.建筑经济,2013(12):83-86