[摘　要]　利用我国31个省市2000～2011年的面板数据，运用Hansen面板数据门槛模型检验我国城镇化率对房地产市场需求的影响，并以经济增长水平为门槛变量，考察不同地区房地产市场需求对城镇化率变化产生的不同反应。研究发现，城镇化率的提高将促进房地产市场需求增长，但当经济增长水平超过某一门槛值时，这种促进效果将降低。就目前我国东中西部地区城镇化发展现状来看，未来的房地产市场需求将集中在中西部地区。

[关键词]　城镇化；房地产市场需求；面板数据门槛模型

Abstract: Based on China's 31 province-level panel data from 2000 to 2011, tries to analyze the effect of China's urbanization rate on the real estate market demand through a nonlinear threshold regression model. With the level of economic growth as the threshold variable, it investigates different reaction on different areas of the real estate market demand for the change of urbanization rate. The results indicate that: the improvement of the urbanization rate will promote the growth of the real estate market demand, but when the level of economic growth exceeds a threshold value, the effect will be reduced. In the future, the real estate market demand will focus on the central and western regions.

Key words: urbanization; real estate market demand; Panel Threshold Model

[参考文献]

[1]陈德强.区域房地产市场需求的关键因素分析[J].建筑经济，2005（10）.

[2]骆永民.城市化对房价的影响：线性还是非线性?——基于四种面板数据回归模型的实证分析[J].财经研究，2011（4）.

[3]高波，王斌.中国大中城市房地产需求弹性地区差异的实证分析[J].当代经济科学，2008（1）.

[4]任木荣，刘波.房价与城市化的关系——基于省际面板数据的实证分析[J].南方经济，2009（2）.

[5]Hansen B E.Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels：Estimation, testing, and inference[J]. Journal of Econometrics，1999（93）.

建筑经济，2013（11）：61-63