人均住房面积与恩格尔系数关系研究金海燕
(重庆大学建设管理与房地产学院, 重庆 400045)
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[摘 要] 首先理论分析提出人均住房面积与恩格尔系数之间具有反向变动的内在联系,其次根据我国实际,利用回归方法初步验证二者之间具有反向变动的线性关系;然后建立了VAR(1)计量模型,通过Granger因果检验方法得出恩格尔系数是人均住房面积的Granger原因,反之则不然;利用脉冲响应函数方法进一步分析恩格尔系数对人均住房面积的影响大小和时间长短;分析日本人均住房面积与恩格尔系数的关系,得到日本的边际住房面积倾向(MPHA)大于我国。最终提出恩格尔定律的推论:随着恩格尔系数降低,人均住房面积不断提高,二者具有反向变动的线性关系;二者线性关系中,恩格尔系数所处阶段不同,MPHA也不同,当恩格尔系数处于较高的水平,MPHA较小,反之亦然。[关键词] 恩格尔系数;人均住房面积;线性关系;边际住房面积倾向(MPHA)Abstract: Firstly proposes the per capital housing area(PCHA) and Engel's coefficient(EC) changed in the opposite direction through theoretical analysis, secondly according to China' actual, initially verifies PCHA and EC has opposite direction linear relationship by regression analysis; then sets up VAR(1) model and gets the conclusionthat EC is Granger cause of PCHA by Granger causality test method; analyzes degree and duration of influence of EC to PCHA by impulse response function; analyzes the relationship of PCHA and EC in Japan and gets marginal propensity to housing area (MPHA) is greater than China. At last reduction of Engel' law is proposed: as EC is decreasing, PCHA is increasing and PCHA and EC linearly change in the opposite direction; MPHA is variable according to EC.Key words: Engel's coefficient(EC); per capita housing area(PCHA); linear relationship; marginal propensity to housing area( MPHA)[参考文献][1]白雪,王洪卫.住宅产业综合测度方法研究——基于恩格尔系数与人均住房面积模型分析[J].财经研究,2005,31(9):134-144.[2]高铁梅.计量经济分析方法与建模——EViews应用及实例[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2006.(编辑 刘芳)建筑经济,2010(11):97-100