[摘　要]　房地产市场的调控政策通常集中于房地产开发投资规模、土地供应、金融信贷、住房供应结构、税收等5个方面。选取8个指标代表不同的政策，基于Granger因果关系检验建立VAR模型，并通过广义脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法，测算出各个指标对房价的影响时间及程度。

[关键词]　房地产；调控政策；房价；VAR模型

Abstract: Regulation policies in real estate market always focus on five aspects, including investment scale, land supply, finance, housing supply structure and tax. This paper selects 8 indices to represent different policies, builds VAR model based on Granger causality test, and concludes how long and how much each index could have effect on housing price with generalized impulse and variance decomposition.

Key words: real estate; regulation policy; housing price; VAR model

[参考文献]

[1]高铁梅.计量经济分析方法与建模：EVIEWS应用及实例[M].北京：清华大学出版社，2006：262-274.

建筑经济，2010（9）：36-41