[摘　要]　从民营企业视角，采用系统动力学（System Dynamics），构建住宅产业化规模经济效应及宏观激励政策仿真模型。仿真了建筑面积、建造成本、政府税收优惠等三指标对住宅产业化规模经济效应单因素敏感度和多因素敏感度。仿真结果表明：住宅产业的实施，成本降低是根本、既定规模开发是基础、政府激励是关键。

[关键词]　住宅产业化；仿真研究；规模效应；建造成本；政府激励

Abstract: The Model of Effect of Scale Economy and Macro Incentive Policies of Housing Industrialization（ESEMIPHI） is proposed with System Dynamics（SD） on the view of private enterprise. The scale economies effect of housing industrialization is firsly computed and analyzed, and then the sensitivity is simulated by building area, building cost and tax incentives. From this simulation, the conclusion is drawn: housing industrialization must depend on a certain development and government incentives policies, meanwhile reducing of building cost is the key.

Key words: housing industrialization; simulation; effect of scale economy; building cost; government incentive

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建筑经济，2013（7）：89-92