房地产市场销售持时对交易价格影响机制研究—以北京为例
（1.清华大学房地产研究所， 北京 100084； 2.清华大学建设管理系， 北京 100084）
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[摘 要] 从消费者和开发商的博弈与预期的角度，探讨不同市场条件下，房地产交易过程中销售持时（TOM）对交易价格的影响机制。基于北京市2006至2008年新建住房交易数据进行实证检验。研究结果揭示了销售持时对交易价格的重要作用，以及由于市场发展状况和房屋类型的不同而产生的差异；并从增加市场的信息透明度、稳定房地产价格的角度提出相关的政策建议。[关键词] 房地产；交易价格；销售持时；市场预期Abstract: Based on the expectations of consumers and developers, as well as the game between them during the transaction process in real estate market, this paper discusses the impact of time-on-market（TOM） on transaction price and analyzes the different impacts across the various market conditions. We make an empirical study using the transaction data from 2006 to 2008 in Beijing. This paper indicates the significant effects of expectations of both consumers and developers on housing prices and provides policy implications on information symmetry and price stability.Key words: real estate; housing price; time-on-market; market expectation[参考文献][1]Yavas A. A simple search and bargaining model of real estate markets[J]. Journal of the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association，1992，20（4）：533-548.[2]Anglin P. M. Determinants of buyer search in a housing market[J]. Real Estate Economics，1997，25（4）：567-590.[3]Stein J. C. Prices and trading volume in the housing market： a model with down-payment effects[J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics，1995，110（2）：379-406.[4]Taylor C. R. Time-on-the-market as a sign of quality[J]. The Review of Economic Studies，1999，66（3）：555-578.[5]Asabere P. K.， Huffman F. E. Price concessions， time on the market， and the actual sale price of homes[J]. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics，1993（6）：167-174.[6]Huang J. C.， Palmquist R. B. Environmental conditions， reservation prices， and time on the market for housing[J]. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics，2001，22： 203-219.[7]Bj?觟rklund K.， Dadzie J.， Wilthelmsson M. Offer price， transaction price and time-on-market[J]. Property Management，24（4）：415-426.[8]Knight J. R. Listing price， time on market， and ultimate selling Price： causes and effects of listing price changes [J]. Real Estate Economics，2002，30（2）：213-237.[9]Clauretie T. M.， Thistle P. D. The effect of time-on-market and location on search costs and anchoring： the case of single-family properties[J]. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics，2007，35（2）：181-196.建筑经济，2013（5）：70-73