项目进度绩效预测研究—基于挣得技术的三种进度预测方法比较分析
（南京理工大学经济管理学院， 江苏 南京 210094）
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[摘 要] 对项目进度绩效预测方法进行比较分析。首先描述六种项目状态下项目进度预测问题，系统阐述计划价值率法、挣得工期法和挣得进度法的进度预测方法。结合某工程建设项目案例，对三种方法的进度预测结果进行分析：在项目早、中期，三种方法预测结果差异不明显，但在项目接近收尾阶段，挣得进度法更能准确反映项目未来的进度状态。[关键词] 预测；挣得技术；计划价值率；挣得工期；挣得进度Abstract: This paper aims to make a comparative analysis of different methods for project schedule performance prediction. Firstly, the schedule performance prediction problem in the six statues is described. The plan valued rate method, earned duration method and the earned schedule method are then introduced. At the end of this paper, an engineering construction project is used to make compare. The result shows that three methods made no differences result before middle stage. But the earned schedule method progressed more accurately future forecast in the end of the project.Key words: prediction; earned value method; plan value rate; earned duration; earned schedule[参考文献][1]Anbari F. T. Earned value method and extensions[J].Project Management Journal，2003，34（4）：12-19.[2]Walt Lipke，Ofer Zwikael，Kym Henderson，etc. Prediction of project outcome: the application of statistical methods to earned value management and earned schedule performa-nce indexes[J].International Journal of Project Management，2009（27）：400-407.[3]Jacob D. Forecasting project schedule completion with earned value metrics[J].The Measurable News，2003， spring（1）：7-9.[4]Jacob D. S.，Kane M. Forecasting schedule completion using earned value metrics revisited[J]. The Measurable News，2004，summer（1）：11-17.[5]Henderson K. Further developments in earned schedule[J]. The Measurable News 2004，Spring:15-16；20-22.[6]高朋，冯俊文.基于时间EVT的项目进度预测方法[J].系统工程，2009，27（12）：100-104.建筑经济，2013（4）：19-22