[摘　要]　在现代项目管理实践中，项目范围的不确定是导致项目失败的主要原因。不断的范围变更不仅使定义项目范围耗费了时间和资金，而且在实际中也不经济易行。由于项目范围变更能显著影响整个项目实施的成本、进度、风险和质量，所以控制和管理项目范围变更对项目成功至关重要，在不确定条件下则更为明显。项目经理和团队成员应该警惕未被控制的变更，并在需要的时候将其重新纳入正确的解决程序中。采用博弈论探讨项目范围参与人在不确定条件下变更的风险和支付状况，阐明均衡的不确定性和多样性；进一步通过SWOT分析提出项目管理人员在不同情况下需要选择的策略和注意的技巧。

[关键词]　不确定条件；项目范围；变更；SWOT分析

Abstract:  It is widely accepted that uncertain definition of project’s scope is one of the leading causes for the failure in modern project management practice. It is neither spend the time or money, nor economically feasible to define the scope adequately because of the uncontrolled changes in a project's scope. Because scope changes can significantly impact the cost, schedule, risk and quality of the entire effort, controlling and managing scope change is critical to the success of any project, and that is especially obvious under uncertain condition. The project manager and project team should be alert for uncontrolled changes. Where necessary, changes should be painlessly re-directed into the correct procedure. Using game theory, this paper discusses the risk and payment of actors who involved in project scope change management, and clarifies the uncertainty and diversity of balance under uncertain condition. Further, this paper puts forward the strategies that project team would  select in different situation and presents tips and techniques for managers through the SWOT analysis.

Key words:  uncertain condition; project scope; scope change; SWOT analysis

建筑经济，2013（3）：39-42