BT模式下项目投资建设方风险评价模型研究
(1.中国交通建设集团有限公司, 北京 100088; 2.北京交通大学, 北京 100044)
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[摘 要] 以项目投资建设方的角度,从项目投融资风险、工程建设风险和项目回购风险三个阶段分析,找出影响BT项目运作的风险因素,确定风险评价指标;以项目实践调研为依据,利用排序法确定评价指标权重值,组建风险评价模型,对项目风险进行综合评价,并提出切实可行的风险防范策略。旨在为BT模式提供一种简单易行的风险评价方法,提高其对BT项目的风险防控能力。[关键词] BT模式,风险,评价,投资建设方Abstract: From the investors perspective, this paper analyzes risks from three levels, like project investment and financing risk, construction risk and project buyback risk to find out various sources of risks affecting the operation of the BT project. Based on practice research, using sorting method to determine risk index weights, establishes a risk evaluation model to evaluate project risks comprehensively, and develops practical risk prevention strategies. This paper is intended to provide a simple risk evaluation method for projects investors under BT mode and to enhance the risk prevention and control capacity of BT project investors.BT mode will be better applied in our countrys infrastructure.Key words: BT mode; risk; valuation; project investor[参考文献][1]陈湘生.深圳地铁5号线BT模式建设管理研究与实践[M].北京:人民交通出版社,2011.[2]Garvey,P,Phair,D.J.& Wilson,J.A.An information architecture for risk assessment and management[J].IEEE Software.1997(5):25-35.[3]葛培键,张燎.基础设施BT项目运作与实务[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,2009:24-25.[4]陈衍泰.综合评价方法分类及研究进展[J].管理科学学报,2004(7):69-79.[5]彭国甫.应用层次分析法确定政府绩效评估指标权重研究[J].中国软科学,2004(11):136-139.建筑经济,2012(9):28-31