城市房价风险测度及预警研究综述
(1.河北工业大学管理学院, 天津 300401;2.天津城市建设学院, 天津 300384)
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[摘 要] 在明确房价风险问题研究的理论和现实意义的基础上,分析论证房价风险的内涵及其影响因素,介绍并比较分析金融和房地产领域的风险测度方法,根据房价风险的特性,回顾风险预警理论及价格风险预警的应用研究概况,最后针对目前研究的问题提出进一步的研究方向。[关键词] 城市房价,房价风险,风险测度,风险预警Abstract: Based on the theoretical and actual importance of the study on the urban housing price, the paper analyzes and argues the connotation of urban housing price risk and its influential factors. Then the paper introduces and compares the risk measurement methods in fields between banking and real estate. And then, according to the characteristics of housing price risk, the paper reviews comprehensively the research status of the application of the risk early-warning and the price risk early-warning. Finally, some existing problems in the research are pointed out and some likely new respects are presented.Key words: urban housing price; housing price risk; risk measurement; risk early-warning[参考文献][1]刘民权,孙波.商业地价形成机制、房地产泡沫及其治理[J].金融研究,2009(10):22-37.[2]Bulan L, et al. Irreversible investment,real options,and competition:evidence from real estate development[J].Journal of Urban Economics,2009,65(3):237-251.[3]Chen J, et al.Global real estate risk index——to capture different levels of market risk[J].Journal of Portfolio Mana-gement,2003(29):66-75.[4]邓长荣,马永开.我国住宅价格多层面因素模型及其实证研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2010(1):48-55.[5]柳冬,王雯珺.我国房地产价格影响要素分析与趋势预测[J].管理评论,2010(5):3-10.[6]杨黎明,孙德轩.基于HP-at-Risk模型的房价波动风险度量方法研究[J].企业经济,2010(7):37-39.[7]刘丹,张中铭.房价宏观风险度量方法研究[J].金融理论与实践,2010(10):13-16.[8]Hany S.Guirguis,Christos I.Giannikos,Randy I. Anderson. The US housing market:asset pricing forecasts using time varying coefficients[J]. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics,2005,30(1):33-53.[9]Mulvey J M,Erkan H G.An enterprise risk management model for supply chains[M]. Springer Science Business Media,2009:177-189.[10]Breiman L.Bagging predictors[J].Machine Learning,1996(2):123-140.[11]James P J.Equipment management risk rating system based on engineering endpoints[J].Biomedical Instrumen-tation and Technology,1999,33(2):115-120.[12]Lee H L,Billington C.The evolution of supply chain management models and practice at Hewlett-Packard[J].Interfaces,1995,2(55):42-63.[13]Sanders D R,Boris K,Manfredo M.Hedges,funds,and small speculators in the energy futures markets:an analysis of the CFTC's commitments of traders reports[J].Energy Economies,2004(26):425-445.[14]崔啸,周克成,等.北京市商品住宅系统动力学模型构建及其在预警中的应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,2011(4):672-678.建筑经济,2012(6):66-68