[摘　要]　运用最新数据分析城镇住房市场供需关系和绩效特点，展望未来时期城镇住房市场供需变化趋势：我国城镇住房市场刚性供需关系已经由趋紧转向宽松，房价长期上涨驱动力逐渐消失；住房市场表现出较明显的恶化社会分配特征，房价增长明显抑制了居住城镇化进程；未来新增家庭数下降导致新增基本住房需求呈下降趋势，既有家庭的改善性住房需求则取决于收入储蓄积累，存量市场“二手房”供给也将加快释放。

[关键词]　城镇住房市场,供需关系,趋势展望

Abstract: This paper analyzes the supply-demand relationship and performance characteristics of the urban housing market by the newest data, prospects the supply-demand change trends. In the current housing market, the supply-demand relationship based on consumer housing will become looser gradually, the pressure of rising of housing price will decrease. And the current housing market shows obvious deterioration of social distribution, the process of urbanization is suppressed by excessive rising of housing price. In the near future, as the incremental household dropping, the incremental basic housing demand will also drop, the demand of improvement-housing depends on the accumulation of income and deposit, the supply of second-hand housing will appear to grow quickly.

Key words: urban housing market; supply-demand relationship; trend analysis

[参考文献]

[1]陈彦光，等.城市化水平与城市化速度的关系探讨[J].地理研究，2006（6）.

建筑经济，2011（11）：5-8