[摘　要]　在对投标报价费用分解和索赔发生原因进行结构分解的基础上，进行索赔项目费用与原因的交叉定性分析，并利用故障树（FTA）分析法确定索赔事件发生概率。进而考虑承包商索赔工作成功概率、索赔利润率等因素，建立索赔费用计算模型，通过工程实例进行验证，可为索赔及投标报价工作提供指导。

[关键词]　索赔,机会投标报价,定量分析

Abstract: The cross qualitative analysis of claim cost with claim reason is made on the basis of the bidding price and claim reason breakdown system. And the Fault Tree Analysis（FTA） method is used to determine the claim event's probability. Furthermore, builds up the claim profit calculating model comprehensively considering factors such as the contractor's claim success probability and the claim profit rate. The example proves the method and the model's feasibility which can be a guide or reference to the claim and bidding activity.

Key words: claims; opportunity bidding price; quantitative analysis

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建筑经济，2011（4）70-73