摘要：为应对高铁EPC项目全过程中技术复杂、协同困难、资金压力大及外部环境不确定性强等风险管控问题，本文立足总承包商视角，构建基于组合赋权与云模型的全过程风险评估体系。依据总承包商责任边界及成本、进度、质量、安全等履约目标，并兼顾风险的可识别性、可量化性和可管理性，从投标、合同、设计、采购、施工和外部环境六个方面识别21项风险指标。研究采用AHP与改进CRITIC法确定主客观权重，并基于博弈论进行组合赋权，进而运用云模型开展风险评价与等级判定。以广州至湛江高铁EPC项目为例，结果表明该项目综合风险等级为“较高”，其中合同、采购、施工及外部环境风险较为突出。本研究可为总承包商开展风险预警、资源配置和履约决策提供参考。

关键词：高铁EPC项目；总承包商视角；组合赋权；云模型；全过程风险评估

Abstract：To address risk management challenges in the whole process of high-speed railway EPC projects，such as high technical complexity，coordination difficulties，substantial financial pressure，and strong uncertainty in the external environment，this study constructs a whole-process risk assessment system based on combination weighting and the cloud model from the perspective of the general contractor. Considering the responsibility boundary of the general contractor，the comprehensive performance objectives of cost，schedule，quality，and safety，as well as the identifiability，quantifiability，and manageability of risks，21 risk indicators are identified from six stages closely related to contractor performance：bidding，contract，design，procurement，construction，and external environment. The analytic hierarchy process（AHP）and the improved CRITIC method are used to determine subjective and objective weights，respectively，and game theory is further introduced to obtain combined weights. On this basis，the cloud model is applied to conduct risk evaluation and risk level determination. Taking the Guangzhou–Zhanjiang high-speed railway EPC project as an example，the results show that the overall risk level of the project is "relatively high"，with contract，procurement，construction，and external environment risks being particularly prominent. This study provides a reference for general contractors to conduct risk early warning，resource allocation，and performance decision-making.

Keywords：high-speed railway EPC projects；general contractor perspective；combination weighting；cloud model；whole-process risk assessment

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