摘要：针对保障性租赁住房项目传统静态经济评价方法的局限，通过应用系统动力学模型进行多情景仿真，揭示出租率是影响资本金内部收益率的最敏感关键因素，其影响程度显著超越运营成本与利率等传统变量。这一发现突破了静态分析框架，为项目运营期建立以出租率为核心的动态监控与预警机制提供了关键量化依据。

关键词：保障性租赁住房；系统动力学；项目经济评价

Abstract：Addressing the limitations of traditional static economic evaluation methods for affordable rental housing projects，this study applies a system dynamics model to conduct multi-scenario simulations. The results reveal that the occupancy rate is the most sensitive critical factor affecting the Equity Internal Rate of Return（EIRR）. Its impact significantly surpasses that of traditional variables such as operating costs and interest rates. This finding represents a breakthrough beyond static analytical frameworks，providing a crucial quantitative basis for establishing a dynamic monitoring and early-warning mechanism centered on occupancy rates during the project operational phase.

Keywords：affordable rental housing；system dynamics；project economic evaluation

参考文献

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建筑经济，2026（4）：30-34