摘要：本文通过识别影响建筑安装工程工期的主要因素，利用工期定额数据对工期进行二元一次线性回归分析，从而建立了39个工期计算模型，对工期定额修编数据采集、整理、规范、分析具有指导作用；亦可以用于定额工期趋势外推和合理工期测算，对合理工期的确定具有积极作用和重要价值，有助于提升工程项目的管理水平和效率。

关键词：建筑安装工程；合理工期；回归分析

Abstract：This study identifies key factors influencing the duration of construction and installation engineering projects. Using quota duration data，a binary linear regression analysis was conducted to establish 39 duration calculation models. These models provide guidance for data collection，organization，standardization，and analysis during the revision of quota durations. They also enable trend extrapolation of quota durations and estimation of reasonable project timelines，offering significant value in determining scientifically justified schedules. This research contributes to enhancing project management efficiency and effectiveness.

Keywords：construction and installation engineering；reasonable duration；regression analysis

参考文献

[1] 住房和城乡建设部.住房和城乡建设部关于印发《建筑安装工程工期定额》的通知[EB/OL].http：//www.weboos.cn：8078/assets/basicStandard/std_807250.pdf.

[2] 中华人民共和国建设部.建设部关于发布《全国统一建筑安装工程工期定额》的通知[EB/OL].http：//www.weboos.cn：8083/assets/basicStandard/std_52186.pdf.

建筑经济，2025（3）：64-68