基于资产负债表衰退理论的中国房地产 经济现状分析——以房地产和建筑业上市公司为例
(国家开发银行江苏省分行,江苏 南京 210019)
- 文献要素
-
摘要:当前我国房地产经济面临较为严峻的形势,多项指标呈负增长状态,陆续有房地产企业发生债务违约等风险事件,房地产行业的低迷已经开始拖累整体经济发展。由于房地产及与其密切相关的建筑业是国民经济的重要支柱,其对金融稳定和经济安全的影响极为重大。对当前我国房地产经济的现状进行科学分析和研判,并提出相应的政策建议就具有重大现实意义。本文基于资产负债表衰退理论,以中国内地房地产及建筑业上市公司2019-2022年数据为研究对象,对其资产价值及负债情况进行分析,从微观企业层面对当前房地产经济是否陷入资产负债表衰退做出判断,并提出下一步的政策建议。关键词:房地产经济;资产负债表衰退;资产价格;债务最小化Abstract:Currently,China's real estate economy is facing a relatively severe situation,with multiple indicators showing negative growth. There have been risk events such as debt defaults by real estate enterprises,and the downturn in the real estate industry has begun to drag down overall economic development. Due to the fact that real estate and its closely related construction industry are important pillars of the national economy,their impact on financial stability and economic security is extremely significant. Therefore,it is of great practical significance to scientifically analyze and judge the current situation of China's real estate economy,and propose corresponding policy recommendations. This article is based on the theory of balance sheet recession and takes the data of listed real estate and construction companies in mainland China from 2019 to 2022 as the research object to analyze their asset value and liability situation. From the micro enterprise level,it makes a judgment on whether the current real estate economy is in a balance sheet recession and proposes policy recommendations for the next step.Keywords:real estate economy;balance sheet recession;asset prices;minimizing debt参考文献[1] 益言.资产负债表衰退的国际经验及对我国启示[J].中国货币市场,2023(10).[2] 谢亚轩.“资产负债表衰退”的挑战与争议[J].中国外汇,2023(16).[3] 阮达,祝元荣.日本资产负债表衰退的启示[J].中国金融,2022(23).[4] 邱亦霖,梁斯.资产负债表衰退:国际经验、我国现状与政策应对[J].西南金融,2023(3).[5] 靳毅.资产负债表衰退的表现、成因与启示[J].国际金融,2022(9).[6] 姚一旻,杨洋.资产负债表衰退的原因:日本经验[J].中国外汇,2022(15).[7] 田丰.“三道红线”政策与大型房地产企业风险监管——基于H集团财务危机事件的研究[J].商业会计,2023(10).建筑经济,2024(9):78-84