基于实物期权的市政道路PPP项目投资决策研究
(1.中化学南方建设投资有限公司,广东 广州 510308;2.赣州市南康区拓康工程项目建设有限责任公司,江西 赣州 341000;3.江西理工大学经济管理学院,江西 赣州 341000)
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摘要:以市政道路PPP项目为研究对象,分析其所具有的经济特性、不确定性因素和实物期权特点,建立基于Black-Scholes的PPP项目投资决策评价模型并测算各个参数,最后以江西省某市政道路PPP项目为例进行应用。研究结果表明:相较于传统投资决策方法,实物期权模型所计算出的项目投资价值更贴近真实价值,可以为政府和社会资本方决策提供参考依据。关键词:市政道路;PPP;投资决策;实物期权Abstract:Taking the municipal road PPP project as the research object,this paper analyzes its economic characteristics,uncertain factors and real options characteristics,establishes a Black-Scholes-based PPP project investment decision evaluation model,and determines the calculation method of each parameter,and takes a municipal road PPP project in Jiangxi Province as an example for application. The research results show that compared with the traditional investment decision-making method,the value calculated by the real option model is closer to the real value,which can provide a reference for the decision-making of the government and social capital.Keywords:municipal road;PPP;investment decisions;real option参考文献[1] 臧健.PPP项目全过程风险管理问题与对策——以LY建设集团为例[J].建筑经济,2021(1):57-61.[2] 景宏福.路衍经济的发展机理与价值逻辑探析[J].山东社会科学,2021(6):152-157.[3] 朱秀丽,邱菀华.基于实物期权的铁路地下化项目PPP模式投资决策分析[J].系统工程,2011(3):117-120.[4] Huseyin Gulen,Mihai Ion. Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment[J]. The Review of Financial Studies,2015(3):523-564.[5] José Martins,Rui Cunha Marques,Carlos Oliveira Cruz.Maximizing the value for money of PPP arrangements through flexibility:An application to airports[J]. Journal of Air Transport Management Volume,2014(39):72-80.[6] 季闯,程立,袁竞峰,等.模糊实物期权方法在PPP项目价值评估中的应用[J].工业技术经济,2013(2):49-55.[7] Pivorien A.Real options and discounted cash flow analysis to assess strategic investment projects[J].Economics and Business,2017(1):91-101.[8] 程敏,刘亚群.基于特许期调整的城市污水处理PPP项目再谈判博弈研究[J].软科学,2021(5):117-122.[9] Liu J,Yu X,Cheah C Y J. Evaluation of restrictive competition in PPP projects using real option approach[J]. International Journal of Project Management,2014(3):473-481.[10] Faruk Buyukyoran,Selin Gundes.Optimized real options-based approach for government guarantees in PPP toll road projects[J].Construction Management and Economics,2018(4):203-216.[11] 陈晓红,郭佩含.基于实物期权的PPP项目政府补偿机制研究[J].软科学,2016(6):26-29.[12] 谭雅妃,徐和清.实物期权视角下污水治理PPP项目需求风险分担研究[J].会计之友,2019(13):46-51.[13] 周清,李超.分数Vasicek利率模型下几何平均亚式期权的定价公式[J].应用数学学报,2014(4):662-675.[14] 路昊.基于实物期权的S公司T城PPP项目投资决策研究[D].沈阳:沈阳工业大学,2022.[15] 刘骄杨.PPP项目特许经营权价值评估方法研究[D].北京:首都经济贸易大学,2021.[16] 张杰.实物期权在PPP项目投资决策中的应用——基于二叉树模型的实证分析[J].营销界,2021(7):84-85.[17] 沈思翌.实物期权法下城市水体治理PPP项目价值研究[J].商讯,2020(24):162-163.[18] 陈明华.从实物期权角度谈PPP项目投资决策[J].知识经济,2019(31):31-32.建筑经济,2023(2):38-43