摘要：以GDP、CPI、FPI、PPI和R作为主要的宏观经济变量，运用公路工程综合造价指数数据，建立VAR模型，利用脉冲响应和方差分解分析各宏观经济变量与公路工程造价指数的关系，进而分析宏观经济变量对公路工程造价的影响。研究结果表明：从短期来看，GDP对公路工程造价波动的贡献率明显高于其他宏观经济变量；从长期来看，CPI对公路工程造价的影响较大。
关键词：工程造价指数；宏观经济变量；VAR模型
Abstract：Taking GDP，CPI，FPI，PPI and R as the main macroeconomic variables，using the comprehensive cost index data of highway engineering，the paper establishes the VAR model，analyzes the relationship between the macroeconomic variables and the cost index of highway engineering by using impulse response and variance decomposition，as well as the influence of the macroeconomic variables on the cost of highway engineering.The results show that in the short term，the contribution rate of GDP to the fluctuation of highway engineering cost is obviously higher than that of other macroeconomic variables.In the long run，CPI has a greater impact on the cost of highway engineering cost.
Keywords：engineering cost index；macroeconomic variable；VAR mode
参考文献
[1] 王梅.完善市场化机制助力工程造价高质量发展[C].北京：中国土木工程学会，2019：5.
[2] Shahandashti S M.Analysis of construction cost variations using macroeconomic，energy and construction market variables[J].Georgia Institute of Technology，2014.
[3] Shahandashti S M，Ashuri B.Forecasting Engineering News-Record Construction Cost Index Using Multivariate Time Series Models[J]. Journal of Construction Engineering & Management，2013，139（9）.
[4] 张芮郗.全球工程造价指数波动及成因研究[D].重庆：重庆大学，2019.
[5] 李秋玲，王智文，张灿龙，等.基于VAR模型的CPI与PPI因果关系检验[J].广西科技大学学报，2020（1）：104-110.
建筑经济，2021（03）：111-114