摘要：钢材费用在装配式建筑预制构件材料成本中最高占比超过51%，是进行采购成本优化的关键部分。本文考虑钢材市场价格波动的影响，研究应用ABC-LSSVR方法，预测未来多期钢材价格；进而以采购成本最小化为目的，考虑资金使用成本、生产连续性、价格波动等制约因素，建立钢材多期联合采购模型，应用粒子群算法对模型进行求解，得出最优的钢材采购策略，从而降低采购成本。实证分析表明：对比目前业内现行的钢材采购方案，应用优化后的采购方案，使钢材单位采购成本节约了34.21元/吨。

关键词：装配式预制构件；钢材采购成本；价格预测；ABC-LSSVR方法；策略优化

Abstract：The cost of steel accounts for more than 50% of the prefabricated building materials cost，which is a key part of the procurement cost optimization of the prefabricated component supplier. This article considers the impact of steel market price fluctuations，researches and applies the ABC-LSSVR method to predict the future multi-period steel prices；and further aims at minimizing procurement costs，taking into account constraints such as capital use costs，production continuity，and price fluctuations. Combined purchasing model，the particle swarm algorithm is used to solve the model，and a scientific steel purchasing strategy is obtained，thereby reducing the procurement cost. An empirical analysis of a large-scale prefabricated component production base in W City shows that compared with the current procurement schemes in the industry produce better economic benefits.

Keywords：prefabricated prefabricated component；steel purchase cost；price prediction；ABC-LSSVR method；strategy optimization

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