货币政策、物价波动与房地产投资的联动关系—基于VAR模型的实证研究
(1.新疆财经大学统计与数据科学学院,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830012;2.上海财经大学统计与管理学院,上海 200433)
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摘要:借助于VAR模型探讨货币供给、物价波动与房地产投资三者之间的联动关系。研究结论表明:(1)三个变量之间的联动关系较为复杂,当受到外界冲击时,难以使系统最终回归到初始状态;(2)三个变量都不具有较强的自我修正能力;(3)货币政策、价格波动与房地产投资之间的联动性关系不对称;(4)价格指数要比房地产投资敏感,房地产投资拉低货币供给,但货币供给刺激房地产投资。关键词:货币政策;物价波动;房地产投资;联动关系;VAR模型Abstract:The paper discusses the linkage among money supply,price fluctuation and real estate investment with the VAR model. The conclusions are as follows:(1)the linkage among the three variables is complex,while impacted by an external,it is difficult to make the system return to the initial state;(2)the self-correcting ability of the three variables is weak;(3)the linkage relationship between monetary policy,price fluctuation and real estate investment is asymmetric;(4)price index is more sensitive than real estate investment,real estate investment pulls down the money supply,but the money supply stimulates real estate investment.Keywords:monetary policy;price fluctuation;real estate investment;linkage relationship;VAR model参考文献[1] 陈创练,龙晓旋,姚树洁.货币政策、汇率波动与通货膨胀的时变成因分析[J].世界经济,2018(4):3-27.[2] 田新民,武晓婷.中国核心通货膨胀的SVAR模型估计与政策应用[J].中国工业经济,2012(12):5-17.[3] 李庆华,周瑶.房地产投资对货币传导机制的影响研究——基于VADL模型的实证分析[J].现代财经(天津财经大学学报),2016(12):86-96.[4] Naylor T H.The Impact of Fiscal and Monetary Policy on the Housing Market[J].Law and Contemporary Problems,1967(3):384-396.建筑经济,2020(5):09-14