基于博弈论的大型地铁项目PPP模式风险分担研究—以青岛地铁一号线项目为例
(1.青岛黄海学院,山东 青岛 266427;2.青岛地铁集团有限公司,山东 青岛 266000)
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摘要:以青岛地铁一号线项目为例,阐述该项目面临的主要风险,包括信用风险、建设风险、收益风险、不可控风险以及法律政策、审批决策风险,然后借助博弈论模型,分析政府方和社会资本方的风险博弈过程,并结合对一号线项目面临风险的具体分析,提出政府方、社会资本方各自应该承担的风险及双方共同承担的风险方案。关键词:地铁项目;PPP模式;风险分担;博弈论Abstract:Taking the Qingdao metro line 1 project as an example,this paper expounds the main risks faced by the project,including credit risk,construction risk,income risk,uncontrollable risk,legal policy risk and approval decision risk. With the help of game theory model,analyzes the risk game process between government and the social capital. Through the specific analysis of the risks faced by line 1 project,puts forward the risk that the government and the social capital should bear respectively and the risk plan that both sides should bear together.Keywords:metro project;PPP model;risk sharing;game theory参考文献[1] 张曾莲,郝佳赫.PPP项目风险分担方法研究[J].价格理论与实践,2017(1):137-140.[2] 崔媛媛.PPP模式风险分担原则分析[J].工程建设与设计,2017(1):162-164.建筑经济,2020(3):87-91