摘要：以盾构法整个掘进过程为对象，根据盾构法施工阶段的工艺步骤，结合以往经验及研究成果，运用盾构法施工风险识别的三维程式方法确定风险识别的范围和对象。通过WBS工作分解结构树和RBS风险分解结构树耦合，梳理盾构法施工基本工序单元与风险因素的对应关系，构建盾构法施工风险因素识别WBS-RBS结构矩阵，并据此建立过海通道盾构法施工风险因素矩阵，识别出过海通道盾构法施工关键风险因素。以期对过海通道盾构法项目施工风险管理提供理论依据和风险识别工具，为其他类似工程施工风险识别提供参考。

关键词：施工风险识别；三维程式；工作分解结构；风险分解结构

Abstract：This paper takes the whole excavation process from the beginning of the shield method as the object. According to the process steps of the shield construction stage，combined with the previous experience and research results，the three-dimensional program method of shield construction risk identification is used to determine the scope and the objects of risk identification. Through the coupling of WBS work breakdown structure tree and RBS risk decomposition structure tree，the corresponding relationship between the basic process unit and risk factors of shield construction is combed，and the WBS-RBS structure matrix of shield construction risk factor identification is constructed. The risk factor matrix of the sea channel shield construction method identifies the key risk factors for the construction of the cross-sea channel shield method. In order to provides theoretical basis and risk identification tools for construction risk management of the cross-sea channel shield method project，and provides refe ence for other similar project construction risk identification.

Keywords：construction risk identification；three-dimensional program；work breakdown structure；risk breakdown structure

参考文献

[1] 洪开荣.我国隧道及地下工程发展现状与展望[J].隧道建设，2015（2）：95-107.

[2] 李浩然，李启明，等.2002～2016年我国地铁施工安全事故规律性的统计分析[J].都市快轨交通，2017（1）：12-19.

[3] 候寒冰.地铁建设项目施工风险评价方法与准则研究[D].大连：大连理工大学，2011.

[4] 竺维彬，鞠世健.地铁盾构施工风险源及典型事故的研究[M].广州：广州暨南大学出版社，2011.

[5] 陈馈，洪开荣，焦胜军.盾构施工技术[M].北京：人民交通出版社股份有限公司，2016.

[6] 丁敏.基于事故统计的盾构法施工风险识别[J].建筑机械化，2017（11）：44-47.

[7] 丁敏.基于贝叶斯网络法的厦门地铁3号线过海通道盾构法施工风险评价[D].厦门：厦门大学，2018.

建筑经济，2019（12）：36-40