[摘　要]　理论表明，房地产市场通过财富效应机制影响居民消费。因此，中国房地产市场有可能存在着显著的财富效应，并且房地产价格变动可能影响居民消费。本文运用一个总量消费模型，选用我国2000年1月到2008年1月消费者信心指数与房价指数的月度数据，对上述问题进行实证分析。结果表明，房价持续上涨对消费具有明显的挤出效应。

[关键词]　房地产；财富效应；总量消费模型

Abstract: Theory suggests that real estate market can affect consumers through wealth effect mechanisms. Hence China's real estate market may have a significant wealth effect, and changes of real estate prices may affect consumption. This paper uses an aggregate consumption model to do empirical analysis based on the consumer confidence index and the monthly price index data from January 2000 to January 2008. The results show that the rising trend of housing price has a significant crowding-out effect on aggregate consumption.

Key words: real estate; wealth effect; aggregate consumption model

[参考文献]

[1]Campbell，Cocco．How do house prices affect consumption? evidence from micro data [J]. Journal of Monetary Econom-

ics，2005（54）：591-621．

[2]Ludwig， Slok. The impact of changes in stock prices and house prices on consumption in OCED countries[J]．International Monetary Fund，2002（1）:385-423．

[3]Case， K. E.， Quigley， J. M.， Shiller， R. J. Comparing wealth effects: the stock market versus the housing market[J].Advances in Macroeconomics，2005（5）:1-32.

[4]Morris E. Examining the wealth effects from home price appreciation[Z]． University of Michigan workpaper，2006：1-42.

[5]陈飞，高铁梅.结构时间序列模型在经济预测方面的应用研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究，2005（2）:95-103.

建筑经济，2009（12）：40-43