基于实物期权的居家养老PPP项目投资决策研究
(武汉理工大学,湖北 武汉 430070)
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摘要:以居家养老PPP项目为研究对象,通过识别居家养老PPP项目中的实物期权类型,以延迟期权为例运用实物期权理论构建投资决策模型,探讨社会资本在不确定条件下为保证可持续、稳定的现金流量,实现预期投资收益率应做出最优投资决策的规则,为居家养老PPP项目投资决策提供参考。关键词:居家养老;PPP项目;社会资本;实物期权;投资决策Abstract:This paper regards the PPP projects providing home-based aged-care services as the object,identifies the type of real options in the projects. Taking delayed option as an example,builds the investment decision model by using real options theory. Then,explores the rules of making the proper decision by social capital to achieve sustainable and stable cash flow and realize the expected rate of return on investment under the uncertain conditions,in order to provide reference for investment decisions in the PPP projects providing home-based aged-care services.Keywords:home-based aged-care services;PPP;social capital;real options;investment decisions参考文献[1] 韦江,倪宣明,等.老龄化下人口政策与经济增长关系研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2018(2):337-350.[2] 张金明,刘洪玉.实物期权与土地开发决策模型[J].土木工程学报,2004(5):92-95.[3] 阿维纳什·迪克希特,罗伯特·平迪克.不确定条件下的投资[M].朱勇,黄立虎译.北京:中国人民大学出版,2003.建筑经济,2018(10):55-58