房地产市场泡沫评价研究综述
(大连理工大学管理学院, 辽宁 大连 116024)
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[摘 要] 分析了房地产泡沫形成的原因,描述了房地产泡沫的检测方法,全面回顾了房地产预警指标和模型。通过对房地产泡沫的成因、检测、预警等方面的梳理,总结出该领域的研究成果,为房地产市场研究和管理提供参考。[关键词] 房地产泡沫;成因;检测;预警;综述Abstract: This paper analyzes the causes of the real estate bubble, describes the detection methods of it, and reviews the early warning indicators and models of it. Through all of the above, this paper summaries the research findings in this field to provide the references for the research and management of real estate market.Key words: real estate bubble; causes; detection; early warning;summarization[参考文献][1]Frederic S,Mishkin.Understanding financial crises:a devel-oping country perspective[J].NBER Working Papers 5600,National Bureau of Economic Research,Inc.[2]Allen,F,Gale,D.Optimal financial crises[J]. Journal of Fin-ance,1998(53): 1245-1284.[3]Hofmann,Boris.The determinants of private sector credit in industrialized countries: do property prices matter?[Z].BIS Working Papers,2001(108).[4]Bertrand Reynaud.The 1985-1994 global real estate cycle:its causes and consequences[Z]. Policy Research WorkingPaper of the World Bank,1995.[5]Wong Kar-jiu.Housing market bubbles and currency crisis:the case of Thailand[C]//International Conference on The Asian Crisis: The Econo-mics Front',Seattle,1998.[6]谢经荣,等.地产泡沫与警容危机[M].北京:经济管理出版社,2002.[7]Krugman,P. Bubble,boom,crash:theoretical notes on Asia'scrises[Z].Working paper,MIT,Cambridge,1998.[8]Gaia Garino,Lucio Sarno.Speculative bubbles in U.K.house prices: some new evidence[J]. Southern Economic Journal,2004,70(4): 777-795.[9]丁烈云. 房地产市场风险预警研究方法综述[J].中国矿业大学学报,2006(1).[10]黄继鸿,雷战波,凌越.经济预警法研究综述[J].系统工程,2003,21(3):64-70.[11]丁烈云,李斌.房地产市场预警调控系统的构筑技术要点及流程设计[J].系统工程理论与实践,2002(4):58-62.建筑经济,2009(10):42-44