[摘　要]　分别选取房地产市场和资本市场的代表性指标进行定量分析，为两者波动关系研究提供量化的证明和补充。研究表明：两市场的波动具有一致性，长短期内均存在均衡关系，相互作用时滞为2~4年左右。资本市场中实际利用外资对房地产市场的影响和贡献大于银行贷款。另一重要发现是，实际利用外资对房地产投资呈正向效应，对房地产销售呈负向效应，而银行贷款对房地产投资、销售皆呈正向效应。
[关键词]　房地产市场；资本市场；定量分析
Abstract: This article respectively selects representative indicators to examine the fluctuating relationship between real estate market and capital market.The study shows that fluctuating relationship in two markets is consistent, and a balanced relationship exists in the long and short period. The time-delay of general interaction is about 2 to 4 years. In the capital market, the impact and contribution of actual utilization of foreign investment to the real estate market is greater than bank loans. Another important finding is that actual utilization of foreign investment has positive effects on real estate investments, and negative effects on real estate sales.But real estate investments and sales are reflected positively by bank loans.
Key words: real estate market; capital market; quantitative analysis
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建筑经济，2009（9）：91-93