摘要：通过拟合历史数据，建立建筑业与国民经济和社会协调发展的系统动力学模型，量化定义建筑业与国民经济和社会协调发展，并模拟预测建筑业与国民经济和社会互动发展的趋势和规律，结果表明，二者不协调矛盾日益突出。动态调整建筑业发展参数发现，建筑业与国民经济和社会实现协调发展，要求建筑业具备自动调节生产规模能力和内涵式经济增长方式。测算建筑业现有发展模式发现，建筑业生产方式僵化，依赖外部投入拉动经济增长，难以适应国民经济和社会发展。
关键词：建筑业；国民经济；系统动力学；协调发展
Abstract：By fitting historical data，the paper establishes the system dynamics model for the coordinated development of construction industry and national economy and society，gives a quantitative definition of the coordinated development of construction industry and national economy and society，and simulates and predicts the trends and laws of the interaction between construction industry and national economy and society，the result shows that the contradiction between the two uncoordinated increasingly prominent. Then，dynamically adjusts the development parameters of construction industry，finds that the coordinated development of construction industry and national economy and society，requires construction industry to have the ability of automatic adjustment of production scale and the growth mode of connotative economic. Finally，calculates the existing development model of construction industry and finds that the mode of production in construction industry is rigid and depends on external input to stimulate economic growth，which hardly meet the needs of national economy and social development.
Keywords：construction industry；national economic；system dynamics；coordinated development
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建筑经济，2017（11）：05-10