摘要：提出用气象数据的方法获取建筑能耗分析，并使用DeST-c软件建立武汉市典型办公建筑模型进行能耗分析，得到未来冷、热负荷分别呈现明显上升、略微下降的趋势，并导致采暖空调总能耗略微上升。对建筑围护结构主要参数进行敏感性分析，认为改变外窗传热系数对建筑能耗改善有明显作用。由此对现行《公共建筑节能设计标准》中针对武汉市及相似地区的规范限值提出修改意见，使其在气候变化趋势下更具环境适应性。
关键词：气候变化；办公建筑；能耗分析；能耗预测；敏感性分析
Abstract：The paper develops the method to obtain the meteorological data used for building energy consumption analysis. By using DeST-c software to build a typical office building model in Wuhan and to carry out energy consumption analysis，concludes that the cooling and heating load are going to rise in a great degree and drop in a relatively slight degree，which results in a slight increase in the total cooling and heating load. The sensitivity analysis of three main envelope parameters show that changing the heat transfer coefficient of the external window has a significant effect on the improvement of building energy consumption. Therefore puts forward some suggestions on the restriction of Wuhan and similar areas for the Design Standard for Energy Efficiency of Public Buildings，in order to make it more environmentally adaptive under the trend of climate change.
Keywords：climate change；office building；energy simulation；energy consumption prediction；sensitivity analysis
参考文献
[1] 刘涛.基于气候变化下的办公建筑节能设计[D].西安：西安建筑科技大学，2010.
[2] 彭勇.基于软件模拟的夏热冬冷地区办公建筑被动式设计研究[D].长沙：湖南大学，2013.
[3] Kerr R A.The IPCC gains confidence in key forecast[J].Science，2013，342：23-24.
[4] Zhou Y，Clarke L，Eom J，et al. Modeling the effect of climate change on US state-level buildings energy demands in an integrated assessment framework[J]. Applied Energy，2014，113：1077-1088.
[5] Sari R，Soytas U. The growth of income and energy consumption in six developing countries[J]. Energy Policy，2007（2）：889-898.
[6] 高宏逵.夏热冬冷地区办公建筑节能设计对策研究[D].哈尔滨：哈尔滨工业大学，2007.
[7] IPCC. Climate change 2013：the physical science basis[M]. Cambridge：Cambridge University Press，2013.
[8] Xu P，Huang Y J，Miller N，et al. Impacts of climate change on building heating and cooling energy patterns in California[J]. Energy，2012（1）：792-804.
[9] 刘大龙，刘加平，杨柳，等. 气候变化下建筑能耗模拟气象数据研究[J]. 土木建筑与环境工程，2012（2）：110-114.
[10] Yau Y H，Hasbi S. A review of climate change impacts on commercial buildings and their technical services in the tropics[J]. Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews，2013（2）：430-441.
工程经济，2017（06）：60-64